Dave Obey

Mr. OBEY

Mr. OBEY. Madam Speaker, pursuant to House Resolution 168, I call up the conference report on the bill (H.R. 1) making supplemental appropriations for job preservation and creation, infrastructure investment, energy efficiency and science, assistance to the unemployed, and State and local fiscal stabilization, for fiscal year ending September 30, 2009, and for other purposes, and ask for its immediate consideration.

Mr. OBEY. If the gentleman would yield, I would simply note the House has already voted on how it intends to proceed, and I see no reason to depart from that.

Mr. OBEY. Mr. Speaker, I ask unanimous consent that all Members may have 5 legislative days in which to revise and extend their remarks and include extraneous material on the conference report accompanying H.R. 1, and that I may include tabular material on the same.

Mr. OBEY. Mr. Speaker, I yield myself 10 seconds. As Senator Cochran said, the time for talk is over. It is time to vote. The country needs this package. I urge support. I think we ought to get on with it. Economic Analysis of the Conference Report on H.R. 1, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Economists generally agree that the Nation is facing one of the most dire economic crises in our history. Over the past three months 1.8 million jobs have been lost after falling the same amount in the prior ten months. Other economic data also point to an ever-faster sinking U.S. economy: Unemployment has soared by 4.1 million, an increase of more than 50 percent from 7.5 million to 11.6 million since December 2007 when the recession began. Full time employment dropped 3.5 million over the last three months, much faster than at any time since the data began in 1967. Consumer demand for goods fell at an 11 percent rate in the second half of 2008, faster than at any time in the 62 years of data. Only five months in six decades of data saw lower use of our manufacturing capacity than the 70.2 percent recorded in December. Exports fell at a 19.7 percent annual rate in the most recent quarter. Nothing indicates that these trends will not continue unless the federal government acts. While forecasters differ on specifics, many believe that without quick and decisive action the Nation could suffer another 5 million job losses over the coming year. The U.S. economy is caught in a vicious downward spiral with self-reinforcing declines in spending, sales, jobs, income, profits, government revenues, state and local services, investment, and global trade. The federal government is the only major actor in the U.S. economy with the capacity to stop the downward spiral. The current downturn looks a lot more like the early stages of the Great Depression than any episode since the 1930s: Rapid shrinkage in private credit, with crisis in every major financial sector; The favorite tool of the Federal Reserve (the short term rate to banks) already lowered to virtually zero; Evaporating household wealth with plunging values of homes and financial assets; Record high supplies of vacant homes and declines in home values with no end in sight; The fewest cars sold relative to the population since the 1940s; and Inflation is verging on negative territory or deflation, a condition that discourages consumption, as people wait to buy at lower prices, and investment, as sales become more problematic and effective borrowing costs rise. Deflation also undermines monetary policy because interest rates cannot go negative. Opponents of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act often argue that ``spending is not stimulus'' because spending by government just reduces spending by others. That argument effectively assumes that total spending in the economy cannot be raised. That would make sense if either (1) we were at full employment or (2) increased government borrowing came from lenders who would otherwise spend the money on U.S. goods and services. Neither condition applies today. We have high rates of unemployed labor and capital equipment. We also find lenders eager to fund federal borrowing rather than to spend, as evidenced by exceptionally low interest rates on U.S. Treasury Bills. These are textbook conditions justifying federal government borrowing to boost the economy. Some critics of this legislation have misinterpreted Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis of the effects of this legislation on jobs and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over the next ten years. CBO found that bills like those passed in the House and Senate would increase job-years by 3.1 million to 9.0 million over the next six years and would not lower jobs thereafter. CBO also found that GDP would be raised over the next ten years. GDP would be boosted 3 to 10 percent over the next several years. If only this bill is enacted and nothing is done to raise saving, the bill would have a zero to 0.2 percent annual reduction of GDP in the long run. Other opponents of this legislation have proposed as an alternative measures intended to boost housing production or prices. With 2.9 percent of homes still vacant, half again as much as at any time prior to 2005, we could fritter away hundreds of billions of dollars of additional deficit with a negligible boost to the economy or jobs. The Congressional Budget Office and private economic forecasters have evaluated various options for boosting national spending from an additional dollar of federal deficit. They have consistently found that the highest ``bang for the buck'' occurs with either direct federal spending or transferring funds to those with tight budget constraints such as cash-strapped households and state and local governments with falling revenues and balanced budget requirements. In contrast, they find that much less additional spending would result from making more money available to those with high incomes or to companies with excess capacity. In recent testimony, CBO Director Elmendorf stated, ``In CBO's judgment, H.R. 1 would provide a substantial boost to economic activity over the next several years relative to what would occur without any legislation.'' The bill's $789 billion price tag sounds large, but it is more likely to be too little than too much. The CBO director has testified that, if nothing is done, our economic output will fall below its potential by close to a trillion dollars this year and next and by another $600 billion in 2011. He noted that this would be the largest gap relative to the size of potential output since the Great Depression. It would represent a loss in Americans' income and output of $2.5 trillion, or about $8,000 per person, that will be lost forever. The forecasters at the Congressional Budget Office, Moody's Economy.com, Macroeconomic Advisors, and the Obama Administration have all estimated that enactment of this legislation could create or save 3 to 4 million jobs. If we can gainfully employ those millions of people, as opposed to having them be unemployed, they can create a stronger economy for the future by building infrastructure, creating technologies, and improving their education and skills. The following table summarizes the funding levels in division A of the conference report: [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TH13FE09.001 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TH13FE09.002 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TH13FE09.003 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TH13FE09.004 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TH13FE09.005 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TH13FE09.006 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TH13FE09.007 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TH13FE09.008 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TH13FE09.009 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TH13FE09.010 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TH13FE09.011 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TH13FE09.012 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TH13FE09.013 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TH13FE09.014 I reserve the balance of my time.

Mr. OBEY. Mr. Speaker, I yield 4 minutes to the distinguished chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, Mr. Rangel. (Mr. RANGEL asked and was given permission to revise and extend his remarks.)

Mr. OBEY. I yield the gentleman 1 minute.

Mr. OBEY. I yield 2 minutes to the distinguished gentleman from Michigan (Mr. Levin). (Mr. LEVIN asked and was given permission to revise and extend his remarks.)

Mr. OBEY. I yield 2 minutes to the distinguished gentleman from California (Mr. Becerra).

Mr. OBEY. I yield myself 10 seconds. I wish the other side would make up their mind whether it's mice or rats, neither of which are in this bill if they will read it. Got it right here. Find it and show it to me. Show it to me. Show it to me. I now yield 2 minutes to the distinguished gentleman from Washington (Mr. McDermott). (Mr. McDERMOTT asked and was given permission to revise and extend his remarks.)

Mr. OBEY. Mr. Speaker, I yield 1 minute to the distinguished majority leader, Mr. Hoyer. (Mr. HOYER asked and was given permission to revise and extend his remarks.)

Mr. OBEY. I yield 2 minutes to the distinguished gentleman from Massachusetts (Mr. Neal).

Mr. OBEY. I yield 2 minutes to the distinguished gentleman from North Carolina (Mr. Etheridge). (Mr. ETHERIDGE asked and was given permission to revise and extend his remarks.)

Mr. OBEY. I yield 3 minutes to the distinguished chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee, Mr. Waxman.

Mr. OBEY. I yield 1 additional minute.

Mr. OBEY. Mr. Speaker, I yield 1 minute to the distinguished dean of the House, the longest-serving Member in the House of Representatives of any Member in history, the gentleman from Michigan (Mr. Dingell). (Mr. DINGELL asked and was given permission to revise and extend his remarks.)

Mr. OBEY. I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentleman from New Jersey (Mr. Pallone).

Mr. OBEY. I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentlewoman from California (Ms. Harman).

Mr. OBEY. Then I would suggest the gentleman proceed.

Mr. OBEY. I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentleman from Illinois (Mr. Rush).

Mr. OBEY. I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentlewoman from California (Ms. Eshoo).

Mr. OBEY. I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentlewoman from California (Mrs. Capps).

Mr. OBEY. I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentleman from New York (Mr. Engel).

Mr. OBEY. I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentleman from Massachusetts (Mr. Markey).

Mr. OBEY. Mr. Speaker, I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentleman from North Carolina (Mr. Butterfield).

Mr. OBEY. I yield 1 minute to the distinguished gentleman from Vermont (Mr. Welch).